Predicting marine biodiversity vulnerability to heatwaves using cutting-edge technologies

Heatwaves are becoming increasingly frequent and severe, with devastating consequences for human health, economies, and ecosystems. Recent record-breaking global temperatures across the globe, highlight the urgent need to be able to accurately predict the vulnerability of natural populations to these events. This vulnerability is determined by the level of heat challenge experienced by an organism, but also crucially, and typically overlooked, its particular physiological sensitivity. This approach requires high-resolution local-scale data of both the physiological sensitivity of a population, but also the thermal environment they inhabit – and this project will apply the latest technologies to collecting and integrating both, in order to produce and test data-informed assessment of population vulnerabilities. The project will capitalise on the latest camera-based high-resolution and high-throughput methods for building robust models of population physiological sensitivity, and these will be integrated with an expansive network of thermal loggers and 3D models of rocky shores to create fine scale modelling of vulnerability for specific populations.

Current approaches to understanding ecological responses to heatwaves are too broad to capture the small-scale natural heterogeneity at microclimate level, underestimating between-location variability. Moreover, they do not incorporate directly observed physiological tipping points, despite the knowledge that these limits vary significantly locally due to microclimates and local adaptation. So while we are beginning to understand global impacts, broad-scale range shifts, and changes in the abundance of cold- and warm-affinity species; ecological and societal consequences at regional scales remain overlooked. Assessment of this fine-scale variability at the regional level, will be paramount in ensuring the persistence of species by identifying low- and high-risk areas, protecting thermal refugia and mitigating ecological traps

This transformative studentship will pioneer approaches to predicting the impact of heatwaves on biodiversity at regional scales, with unprecedented temporal and spatial resolution. The successful candidate will apply a technology-enabled novel combination of physiological (computer vision enabled precise and high-throughput laboratory physiological studies) and ecological models (grounded on empirical, rather than inferred physiological limits), along with heatwave simulations at high spatial resolution (informed by an expansive network of temperature loggers) to identify critical areas for conservation of rocky shore communities in the context of heatwaves, using the diversity of sites across the Southwest of the UK as a model.
This PhD project will address the following objectives:

Laboratory measurement of physiological tolerance in intertidal animals will be assessed using state-of-the-art technologies developed by the supervisory team. A network of temperature loggers in the Southwest of the UK will provide high-resolution, population-specific temperature data, enabling simulation of heatwaves at local scales. Physiological and temperature data will inform a novel physiological model to predict sensitivity of intertidal animals during heatwaves at different locations. For each location, you will explore how species interactions for key species may change in response to simulated heatwaves. Site-specific physiological, ecological and temperature data will be integrated via a novel combination of modelling approaches to predict mortality of intertidal species and associated changes in communities during heatwaves at different locations. This approach will allow you to assess site-specific vulnerability to heatwaves at regional scales.

We are looking for enthusiastic candidates interested in animal physiology and climate change ecology and who are willing to embrace learning new technologies and approaches. Applicants should have a first or upper second class honours degree in an appropriate biological discipline, and preferably a relevant Masters degree. Strong quantitative analysis skills (e.g. R) are essential. Experience with Python and computer vision are welcome, but are absolutely not essential.

This project builds on the core team’s strong background in thermal physiology (Truebano), technological development (Tills), ecological modelling (Burrows) and climate change ecology (Moore), who are uniquely placed to support the delivery of this innovative project. The multidisciplinary training provided by the team will equip you with an extensive skillset in:

You will benefit from extensive supervisory experience and evidence of proactively engaging in EDIA issues, and you will be supported to conduct field and/or lab work, lead manuscripts, present at major international conferences, and engage with impact-facing activity. These mechanisms will increase your visibility and networking opportunities.